2006年的IT十大战略技术

　　The ways of technology are notoriously hard to predict and few have a vision of the future. Gartner Inc.’s picks up 10 top strategic technologies for 2006 as following.

1. microcommerce

　　Microcommerce is an online selling/purchasing model that involves the exchange of very small sums of money, sometimes known as micropayments. Gartner forecast that online purchases of products and services priced at less than $5.00 would generate $30 billion per year by 2010. Examples of microcommerce include single song purchases, pay-per-click advertising, and per-article charges for access to online content.

2. desktop search

　　Desktop search (sometimes called integrated search) is the ability to simultaneously search multiple data sources ——typically including the Internet and corporate intranets and databases as well as hard drives and removable storage on the user’s computer——from a search term entered into a text box on the desktop. Desktop search programs create an index of files stored on the computer, which enables fast and fairly comprehensive searches. The user can search local hard drives, Web sites, e-mail, and other sources without having to minimize the current document or open a browser, e-mail client, or other application. HotBot offers basic desktop search tools; Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google are among the major vendors offering or developing their own versions. Eventually, desktop search could make it possible to find information stored anywhere in the world that was connected, even indirectly, to the Internet.

3. OLED

　　OLED (organic light-emitting diodes) is a display technology, pioneered and patented by Kodak, based on the use of organic polymer material as the semiconductor material in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). A polymer can be a natural or synthetic substance and macro or micro in size. Examples of organic polymers include proteins and DNA. OLED displays are used in cellular phones, digital video cameras, digital versatile disc (DVD) players, personal digital assistants (PDAs), notebooks, car stereos, and televisions. OLED displays are thinner and weigh less because they do not require backlighting. OLED displays also have a wide viewing angle up to 160 degrees even in bright light, and they use only two to ten volts to operate. New technologies that build on the OLED include FOLED (flexible organic light-emitting display), which promises to make highly portable, roll-up displays possible within the next few years.

4. Linux

　　Linux is a Unix-like operating system that was designed to provide personal computer users a free or very low-cost operating system comparable to traditional and usually more expensive Unix systems. Linux has a reputation as a very efficient and fast-performing system. Linux is sometimes suggested as a alternative to Microsoft Windows. But it remains far behind Windows in numbers of users. However, its use in the business enterprise is growing.

5. IM

　　Instant messaging (sometimes called IM) is the ability to easily see whether a chosen friend or co-worker is connected to the Internet and, if they are, to exchange messages with them. Instant messaging differs from ordinary e-mail in the immediacy of the message exchange and also makes a continued exchange simpler than sending e-mail back and forth. Most exchanges are text-only. However, some services, such as AOL, allow voice messaging and file sharing.

　　技术的（发展）道路难于预测是众所周知的，很少有人对（技术的）未来能有先见之明。Gartner公司为2006年挑选了10大战略技术，如下所示。

1. 微观商业

　　微观商业是一个在线的买卖模型，它涉及小额金钱的交易，有时它也称作微型支付。Gartner预测，到2010年，每年购买定价低于5美元的产品和服务，将产生300亿美元的营收。微观商业的例子有购买一首歌、按点击支付的广告以及支付访问在线内容的每篇文章的费用等。

2. 桌面搜索

　　桌面搜索（有时也叫整合搜索）是一种同时搜索多个数据源——通常包括因特网、公司内部网和数据库以及用户计算机上的硬盘和可移动存储设备——的能力，它是按输入在桌面上的文本框内的搜索词条进行搜索。桌面搜索程序对存储在计算机中的文件生成索引，实现快速、合理的综合搜索。用户可以搜索本地磁盘、网站、电子邮件和其他的数据源，而不必缩小当前文件或打开浏览器、电邮客户端或其他应用程序。HotBot提供了基本的桌面搜索工具，在大厂商中，Microsoft、Yahoo和Google已经或者正在开发自己版本的桌面搜索工具。最终，桌面搜索有可能实现找到储存在世界任何地方、连在因特网上（甚至非直接连接的）信息。

3. 有机发光二极管

　　OLED（有机发光二极管）是一项由柯达公司带头研制并拥有专利的显示技术，它是基于使用有机聚酯材料作为发光二极管中的半导体材料。聚酯可以是自然的、也可以是合成的，在尺寸上可以是宏观的、也可以是微观的。有机聚酯材料包括蛋白质和DNA。OLED显示器用于手机、数码相机、DVD播放器、个人数字助手（PDA）、笔记本电脑、汽车立体声音响和电视。由于不需要背景光，所以OLED显示器更薄、更轻。OLED还有更宽的视角，甚至在亮光下视角也高达160度，它们只用2至10伏电压工作。FOLED（柔软的有机发光显示器）是制造OLED的新技术，有望在今后几年中实现便携、能卷起来的显示器。

4. Linux

　　Linux是类似于Unix的操作系统，旨在为个人计算机用户提供免费的或者极低成本的、与传统且较为昂贵的Unix系统相当的操作系统。Linux以高效、高性能的著称。有时，还建议将它作为微软Windows的替代品。但它在用户数量上仍远远落后于Wingdows。然而，它在企业中的应用在增长。

5. IM

　　即时通信（有时叫做IM）是一种方法，据此很容易看到朋友或同事是否联在因特网上，如果联网，就能与他们交换信息。即时通信在信息交换的及时性方面与普通的电子邮件有区别，它使连续交换（信息）比来回传送电子邮件更简单。大多数此类交换只是文本。然而，有些服务（比如AOL的）允许声音传信和文件共享。

6. SOA

　　A service-oriented architecture (SOA) defines how two computing entities interact in such a way as to enable one entity to perform a unit of work on behalf of another entity. The unit of work is referred to as a service, and the service interactions are defined using a description language. Each interaction is self-contained and loosely coupled, so that each interaction is independent of any other interaction.

　　Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP)-based Web services are becoming the most common implementation of SOA. However, there are non-Web services implementations of SOA that provide similar benefits. The protocol independence of SOA means that different consumers can use services by communicating with the service in different ways. Ideally, there should be a management layer between the providers and consumers to ensure complete flexibility regarding implementation protocols.

6. SOA

　　面向服务的架构（SOA）定义两个计算实体如何以这样一种方式进行交互，以便让一个实体以另一个实体的名义做一件事。而这件事是指一个服务，并用一种描述语言定义服务的交互。每个交互式是自我独立的和松散耦合的，因而每个交互式独立于其他的交互。

　　基于简单对象访问协议（SOAP）的Web服务正在成为最常见的SOA实现。但是，SOA也有非Web服务的实现，也提供类似的优点。SOA的协议独立性意味着不同的消费者可以通过不同方法与服务通信而使用服务。理想的情况是，在消费者与提供者之间应该有一管理层，以确保实现协议方面有高度的灵活性。

7. Pervasive computing

　　The goal of researchers is to create a system that is pervasively and unobtrusively embedded in the environment, completely connected, intuitive, effortlessly portable, and constantly available. Among the emerging technologies expected to prevail in the pervasive computing environment of the future are wearable computers, smart homes and smart buildings. Among the myriad of tools expected to support these are: application-specific integrated circuitry (ASIC);speech recognition; gesture recognition; system on a chip(SoC); perceptive interfaces; smart matter; flexible transistors; reconfigurable processors; field programmable logic gates(FPLG); and microelectromechanical systems(MEMS).

7. 普适计算

　　普适计算越来越成为一种无处不在的、在一个环境中计算装置互连的趋势、一种由先进的电子技术（特别是无线技术）与因特网的融合带来的趋势。普适计算的设备不是我们想象的个人计算机，而是非常微小的、甚至看不到的设备，也可以是移动的或是嵌入在可以想象的任何一类设备中，如汽车、工具、器材、衣服和各种消费品，都能通过互连的网络通信。据IBM Almaden研究中心的研究员Dan Russell称，到2010年，计算将与环境融为一体，人们甚至没有意识到正在使用计算机。Russell和其他的研究人员预测，今后我们周围的智能设备将保存有关位置、正在使用的上下文以及有关用户的相关数据的最新信息。(未完待续)

8. location-based services

　　Location-based services (LBS) are services that exploit knowledge about where an information device user is located. For example, the user of a wireless-connected smartphone could be shown ads specific to the region the user is traveling in. Location-based services exploit any of several technologies for knowing where a network user is geographically located. One is the Global Positioning System (GPS). A second approach is E911, an initiative of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that requires wireless carriers to pinpoint a caller’s telephone number to emergency dispatchers. E911 also ensures that carriers will be able to provide call locations from wireless phones. E911 is the most widely used location-based service in the U.S.

8. 基于位置的服务

　　基于位置的服务（LBS）是利用信息设备的用户所处位置的知识的服务。例如，无线连接的智能电话能显示用户旅行所在区域特有的广告。LBS利用任何一种可以知道用户地理位置的技术。其中一种就是全球定位系统（GPS）。第二种是E911，这是美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）的一项倡议，要求无线营运商向紧急台查明报警者的电话号码。E911还确保营运商能提供无线电话的呼叫位置。在美国，E911是使用最广泛的基于位置的服务。

9. grid computing

　　Grid computing is applying the resources of many computers in a network to a single problem at the same time - usually to a scientific or technical problem that requires a great number of computer processing cycles or access to large amounts of data. Grid computing requires the use of software that can divide and farm out pieces of a program to as many as several thousand computers. Grid computing can be thought of as distributed and large-scale cluster computing and as a form of network-distributed parallel processing. It can be confined to the network of computer workstations within a corporation or it can be a public collaboration (in which case it is also sometimes known as a form of peer-to-peer computing).

9. 网格计算

　　网格计算是将一个网络中的很多计算机的资源同时应用于处理单个问题，通常是需要大量计算机处理周期或存取大量数据的科学或技术问题。网格计算需要使用的软件能分割程序和把它们“寄养”在成千上万的计算机上。网格计算可以认为是一种分布式的大规模机群计算、一种网络分布的并行处理。它可以限定在一家公司内部的计算机工作站网络上，或者也可以是社会公众的合作（在此情况下有时也认为是一种点对点的对等计算形式）。

10. virtualization

　　In information technology, virtualization has several meanings.

　　（1）With computer hardware, virtualization is the use of software to emulate hardware or a total computer environment. This kind of software is sometimes known as a virtual machine. A virtual machine may exist in a computer that is also running programs that are natural to that computer and not part of the virtual machine.

　　（2）Relative to computer memory, virtualization is the use of software to allow a program to address a much larger amount of memory than is actually available. This is generally done by swapping units of address space back and forth as needed between a storage device and memory. Such memory is known as virtual memory.

　　（3）In computer storage management, virtualization is the pooling of physical storage from multiple network storage devices into what appears to be a single storage device that is managed from a central console.(The end)

10. 虚拟化

　　在信息技术中，虚拟化有多个意义。

　　（1）对于计算机硬件而言，虚拟化是使用软件来仿真硬件或整个计算机环境。这种软件有时也叫做虚拟机。虚拟机可以存在于一台计算机，它也运行对该计算机而言是正常的、而不是虚拟机一部分的程序。

　　（2）相对于计算机内存，虚拟化是指使用软件，以允许程序能够寻址的内存比实际能使用的要大得多。通常，这是通过来回在存储设备与内存之间交换地址空间的单元而实现的。这样的内存称作虚拟存储器。

　　（3）在计算机存储管理中，虚拟化是把多个网络存储设备的物理存储整合成从控制台上看像是单个存储设备。