web2.0中的1％定理

1%定律是web2.0时代的一条经验定律，与管理理论中的二八理论相呼应（二八理论是指80％的工作是由20％的人完成的），对于理解web用户的习惯非常有用。（译者万晓文注）

这是条非常明显的经验定律：如果有100个人在线，只有一个人会创造内容，10个人会与之产生互动（回复或者改进），其它的89个人只是浏览。这点很明显地体现在YouTube上，这是一个只用了18个月就从零发展到占据60％的在线视频浏览量的业绩。

这些数字是有启迪作用的：每天都有一亿的下载量和六万五千的上传量—— 如Antony Mayfield（http://open.typepad.com/open）指出的，平均一个上传量对应1538个下载量——每月两千万的固定用户。

那些“消费者创造内容”的网站的内容创造者在用户中的比率只有0.5％，当然这只是初期。不是每个人都知道 youtube（YouTube也的确让下载比上传容易，因为任何一个网站都可以放置youtube的下载链接）

考虑一下来自其它社区内容项目的数据，例如维基：50％的维基文章编辑是由0.7％的用户完成的，超过70％的文章是由1.8％的用户写的，来自“消费者礼堂”博客(http://customerevangelists.typepad.com/blog/)

早期来自论坛网站的数据表明80％的内容是由20％的用户创造的，但是随着数据的增长表明了web2.0时代的群组（论坛）是如何运作的。例如，一个要求用户互动与用户创造内容的网站就会发现十个中有九个用户只是浏览而已。

雅虎的Bradley Horowitz也说雅虎的用户也是如此。在雅虎社区，（讨论区）“用户的1％会建立一个群组，10％的用户比较活跃会发表内容（包括回帖与发帖）所有的人都会从以上人群中获利”这是他在二月份写在他的博客上的（www.elatable.com/blog/?p=5）

结论是什么呢？就是不要期望太多人在线。当然，to echo Field of Dream，如果是你建设网站内容的，自然会有人来看。在现实中，最大的困难是，怎么样找到那些创造内容的呢？


译自英文原文如下：

What is the 1% rule?

Charles Arthur
Thursday July 20, 2006
The Guardian

It's an emerging rule of thumb that suggests that if you get a group of 100 people online then one will create content, 10 will "interact" with it (commenting or offering improvements) and the other 89 will just view it.It's a meme that emerges strongly in statistics from YouTube, which in just 18 months has gone from zero to 60% of all online video viewing.

The numbers are revealing: each day there are 100 million downloads and 65,000 uploads - which as Antony Mayfield (at http://open.typepad.com/open) points out, is 1,538 downloads per upload - and 20m unique users per month.

That puts the "creator to consumer" ratio at just 0.5%, but it's early days yet; not everyone has discovered YouTube (and it does make downloading much easier than uploading, because any web page can host a YouTube link).

Consider, too, some statistics from that other community content generation project, Wikipedia: 50% of all Wikipedia article edits are done by 0.7% of users, and more than 70% of all articles have been written by just 1.8% of all users, according to the Church of the Customer blog (http://customerevangelists.typepad.com/blog/).

Earlier metrics garnered from community sites suggested that about 80% of content was produced by 20% of the users, but the growing number of data points is creating a clearer picture of how Web 2.0 groups need to think. For instance, a site that demands too much interaction and content generation from users will see nine out of 10 people just pass by.

Bradley Horowitz of Yahoo points out that much the same applies at Yahoo: in Yahoo Groups, the discussion lists, "1% of the user population might start a group; 10% of the user population might participate actively, and actually author content, whether starting a thread or responding to a thread-in-progress; 100% of the user population benefits from the activities of the above groups," he noted on his blog (www.elatable.com/blog/?p=5) in February.

So what's the conclusion? Only that you shouldn't expect too much online. Certainly, to echo Field of Dreams, if you build it, they will come. The trouble, as in real life, is finding the builders.