Taiwan's Democracy (台灣的民主)

The Kuomintang is surging back towards primacy in the politics of Taiwan, and nobody will be happier than the old foe in Beijing. The KMT after having a totalitarian rule of 50-years over Taiwan, their political power were succumbed to the Democratic Progressive Party five years ago, with many of DPP's core leaders once considered as political dissidents during the 70’s and 80’s.

However, the recent county election has shown that the KMT has adjusted to the rhythms of democracy, and the art of modern election campaigning like the DPP. As a result, the KMT won more than two-thirds of local and provincial elections across the island country and winning the crucial stronghold of Taipei County.

The landslide victory represented a dramatic shift in voter sentiment away from the ruling DPP and President Chen Shui-bian, and no doubt that across the straits the Chinese Communist Party will be jubilant with the result. The CCP will definitely interpret this as a repudiation of Chen's efforts to distance between Taiwan and China. Unfortunately, it will also use these election results to publicly propaganda to its people to show that the majority of Taiwanese support the “One-Country Two-System” policy.

The reality, of course, is far more nuanced and the CCP should not get too carried away claiming victory.

One explanation for voter disenchantment with the DPP is its failure to deliver on long-promised reforms, in part due to a stalemate and opposition in the legislature towards economic structural reforms. The KMT/pan-blue majority in the Legislative Assembly have over the years continued to block many essential bills introduced to the assembly, thus creating a political and economic vacuum which the opposition clearly is the guilty party. Therefore, this lack of a coherent and effective government has created anxieties and uncertainties amongst voters in Taiwan as shown with the subdued economic performances in recent years.

However, one must also consider that with an economic growth this year of 3.6%, an inflation rate of 1.7% and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, these are figures which many developed economies would clearly die and happily settle for. Why is this viewed by pan-blue parties and its influential media as a less-than-exemplary outcome is beyond anybody’s comprehension.
China's strategy has always been to suffocate the separate identity of Taiwan. The Beijing leadership has declared this mission a sacred responsibility which shall be achieved at all cost. Hence, it continues its unrelenting and ruthless campaign to isolate the island politically, and the positioning of more than 700 missiles on the Fujian coast to remind Taiwan's elected rulers of the Communist’s barbaric nature and big-brother bully attitude.

However, in this latest election campaign, however, China kept a low profile. Beijing, it seems, has come to understand the risks of a backlash when it intervenes too overtly in Taiwan's election campaigning and its sovereignty. One consequence of the DPP's defeat may be that China calculates it can afford to sit back and wait out the remaining two years of Chen's presidency, in the expectation Taiwan may soon elect a leader and a government more amenable to its one China, two systems prescription for reunification. One indisputable fact to emerge from this weekend is that KMT party chief, Ma Ying-jeou, becomes the emphatic frontrunner leading towards the 2008 presidential elections.

For Chen, halfway into his second term, the challenge is to avoid being condemned to lame-duck status. One chastening lesson for the DPP, and Chen, is that they will have to prove far more adept at cohabitation with the KMT if they are to secure the passage of important reforms through the Parliament. They have paid a heavy political price for the brinkmanship and head-butting of recent years. What might this mean to Chen's assertive pro-independence stance? Is he willing or capable of seeking detente with the mainland? No. The Beijing leadership is far more likely to see its interests as better served by awaiting the return to power of people with whom they think they can do business.

However, it would also be wrong to assume events will lead inexorably towards China prevailing on the Taiwan question. The Harvard educated Ma Ying-jeou is known to be a fervent anti-communist supporter and a true believer of KMT principles. As for the DPP, their change towards taking a more central path in politics has clearly been a failure, and will need to focus on its original principles that won them power and hearts of their supporters. Finally, the Beijing government should also not become too jubilant with the result as no elected leadership on the island country, DPP or KMT is ever going to surrender its sovereignty according to the Beijing formula.

The biggest winner over the weekend was the further entrenchment of democracy to the people living in the island country of Taiwan. Like it or not, the political freedom of choice is clearly embedded with the Taiwanese people and it is something which its cross-strait neighbour should not go unnoticed.