GRE Argument 范文Topic 55

　　Arg-55

　　The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine:

　　"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

　　This editorial concludes that a two-year decline in sales of Whirlwind's video games is about to reverse and that, further, sales will increase dramatically “in the next few months”. To justify this conclusion the speaker cites a survey in which video-game players indicated a preference for games with realistic graphics. The editorial then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games alongside an advertising campaign, which, the speaker reasons, are clear indicators of fast approaching success. The argument is based on several unproven assumptions.

　　First, the statistical reliability of the survey quickly comes into question. Unless the survey's respondents are representative of the overall population of video-game enthusiasts, the author should not rely on it to make forecasts about future earnings.

　　Secondly, the argument relies on the assumption that the two-year decline in company sales is attributable to a problem that the introduction of its new games and ad campaign will solve. It is entirely possible that the decline was due to other factors: pricing and distribution strategies, poor management, and so on. Consider, for example, if the advertising agency was actually the cause for sagging sales over the past two years. An additional, albeit ramped up effort, by the same failing tactics is not likely to cause a reversal.

　　Thirdly, even if the ad campaign successfully attracts many 10-25 year-olds to Whirlwind's new games, the argument rests on the further assumption that this result will suffice to cause the predicted sales increase during the next few months. Perhaps Whirlwind's new state-of-the-art games are prohibitively expensive for the key demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind's competitors are now introducing similar games at lower prices or with additional features that rendering them comparatively more attractive to video-game enthusiasts than Whirlwind's new games. Unless the author can rule out such possibilities, the prediction can’t be supported.

　　Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, no evidence regarding sales trends has been presented. For example, it is possible that the launch of the new games corresponds to a generally low sales period. If so, the author must modify the prediction accordingly.

　　To strengthen it the author must provide clear evidence that video-game enthusiasts, 10-25 years of age, would be interested in Whirlwind's new games and that they could afford to buy them. To better assess the argument the audience would need to know (1 what caused the two-year sales decline to begin with, and whether Whirlwind's new strategy eliminates that cause; (2 what competing products might challenge earnings over the next three months; and (3 general information about video game sales trends.