【Albert带你1小时看遍美国前沿科技与商业运作】微访谈精选

 

 UShas the "sustainable capability", which means new company always comeout with better business models, and then disrupt the old one. 

Most companies failed because theydon't adjust their strategy to “kill its ownbusiness.“

Don't compete in a "redocean" but create "blue ocean" always.

 

硅谷黑科技

@cooperlee01 提问：硅谷最令Albert眼前一亮的黑科技有哪些？

 

There are really many new tech in Silicon Valley that areimpressive.  But if you want me to pick one,  I'd pick the Robotictechnology (which include all those artificial intelligence, machinelearning, deep learning etc.)

硅谷真的有很多令人眼前一亮的新技术。但如果你想让我选择一个，我会选择机器人技术（包括人工智能，机器学习，深度学习等）

 

@你再用我的昵称 提问：上半年在国内VR的概念很火，想问下您对VR是什么看法？会很快爆发吗？在美国vr的发展如何？

Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality is getting hot in USalso, and I would say AR runs a little bit ahead given relatively less capitalinvestment, and entry barrier is low.  If you consider programming onAR/VR,  I'd suggest starting with AR first. One key business developmenton AR/VR is more related to big data, is the data presentation.  Fidelity in US has done something manny years ago in their lab.

虚拟现实和增强现实是越来越热，而且我觉得相较于VR，AR由于资本门槛和进入壁垒都较低，所以发展地更超前一点。如果你考虑AR/VR的编程，我建议先从AR开始。这个行业非常倚赖大数据，以及大数据如何演示。美国的Fidelity在他们的实验室在很多年前已经做了相关实验。

 

@sherlock是我提问：谷歌工程师预言2030年可以实现人类永生的梦想，大咖怎么看？有没有想着我一定要等到那一天？

Probably not, "quality" is always betterthan "quantity".  Long living doesn't mean that we arealways happy.  And because human is greedy, they will extinguish othersfor some reasons – war.

我并不这么想，在我看来，“质量”比“数量”更重要。长寿并不意味着我们一直快乐地活着。而且因为人类的本性是贪婪的，所以人类会找到一些原因消灭别人，比如战争。

 

@阿旦旦 提问：Albert，想问下你对智能硬件的发展如何看待？

 

There is no "smart hardware" actually, as allsmart devices are driven by "software" Internet of Thing (IoT) is thefuture, and Micro Service Architecture (MSA) will be a good fit to supportthose smart devices, with artificial intelligence + big data running in thecloud.

其实没有所谓的 “智能硬件”。因为在未来，所有的智能设备是由“软件”的物联网（IOT）驱动的。同时，在智能化及大数据的帮助下，微服务架构（MSA）能更好的配合支持这些智能设备。

 

@我是程序员大叔 提问：Albert您好，请问您怎么看互联网汽车？

Internet of Thing (IoT) is the future of humanmankind.  Everything will be connected and car will not be anexception.  If you look at most of the large IT companies, they are"converging" their products from different area (some from mobile,some from car) to IoT ecosystems.

物联网是人类的未来。未来一切都将被连接在一块，汽车自然不会是一个例外。大多数大型科技公司，正在“融合”他们不同的产品（有一些从移动，有一些从汽车）形成物联网生态系统。

 

 

中美科技公司商业模式的差异

@cooperlee01提问：中国互联网公司有没有可能超越美国？以互联网金融和O2O为例，中国的宜信宜人贷盈利能力和成长性都超过lendingclub。O2O，就感觉更能秒杀美国了，外卖、到家服务、甚至美甲，都比美国好很多。

We always fall into the "trap" of"bigger", "larger", "better" etc.  There is really not an easy way to compare appleagainst oranges.   China has the largest market with population forsure, which means "business volume". However, US has the"sustainable capability", which means new company always come outwith better business models, and then disrupt the old one.  This type of"live characteristics" is what China really missing.

我们总是陷入一些所谓“更大”、“更好”的“陷阱”里。但就像你永远无法简单地比较苹果与橘子的差别，中美两国的互联网公司也很难进行简单类比。中国拥有全世界最多的人口，自然意味着最大的“市场”。然而，美国具有强大的“创新能力”。总是有源源不断的新公司用更好的商业模式颠覆旧的商业形态。而这种“创新特质”正是中国商业公司最缺乏的。

 

@Miss_Bison_tp提问：airbnb在国内并不是很火爆，你觉得西方的互联网企业要如何改变才能在东方社会里持续成功？

 

Honestly,  I don't think US IT companies or Chinese ITcompanies need to change anything to accommodate the local market.  There're fundamental "culture difference" that a company cannot bypass.However, shareable economy is the future. China also hassimilar Uber business locally.  It's matter of most Chinese don't want torent their home to others in short term, versus Western people tend to acceptmore on AirBnB

老实说，我不认为我们美国或中国的IT公司需要改变任何东西来适应当地的市场。没有一家家公司能完全适应“文化差异”。但是，共享经济是未来经济形态的方向。中国也有类似Uber的本土公司。Airbnb的在中国无法兴起的原因在于大多数中国人不愿意把家短租给他人，而西方国家更愿意做出此类的分享。

 

@Archer裸 提问：想问一下，美国科技公司大部分都和Google、facebook等一样，那样的企业文化吗？国内很多创业公司也都扁平化管理，很 open，和美国公司有哪些差异？这些文化基因会带来哪些不同的发展结果？

IT companies in US have all different culture.  Forinstance, how Microsoft, IBM managing the company is very different fromGoogle, Facebook etc.  Those companies are also very different from allother startups either. The major reason is every company has a lifecycle to manage.  If it is a startup, it is more a flat structurepromoting creativity.  Once they have a product matured, they need to lookat the bottom line ($$) and be more conservative. In summary, company structureshould change according to its life cycle and not the same forever.

美国科技公司的文化各有不同。例如，微软、IBM的管理模式与谷歌、Facebook很不一样。这些公司与初创型公司的文化也大相径庭。最主要的原因是每家公司都处在不同的生命周期。如果它是在初创期，它的组织结构会相对更加扁平，从而促进创新。一旦他们进入成熟期，他们就需要划定一些规则来保持自身盈利与稳定，那么就会相对保守。总之，公司的组织架构与文化要根据它的生命周期不断调整，而不是一成不变。

@汗青在此 提问：你好，你觉得阿里巴巴和亚马逊两家企业最大的不同点在哪？

 

There are really a lot of differences. I'd tackle it from a"business goal" difference.  Alibaba is a company seeking for"profit" in e-Commerce &other business lines.  Amazon,although have similar goal, Jeff Bezo (like Google/ Facebook), enjoy disruptingthe world with new tech

这两家公司真的有很多不同之处。我就从“商业目标”这个方向入手来解答。阿里巴巴是一家在电子商务和其他商业领域寻求“利润”的公司。亚马逊虽然也有类似的目标，但Jeff Bezo（如Google/Facebook）更喜欢用新技术颠覆世界。

 

@chen-xiaochuan提问：你觉得一个公司如果能保持强大的创新能力，最根本的原因在哪里？企业的文化？激励机制？管理层的思路？普通员工的激情？

No doubt that it's about "culture" first.  But to promote that culture, senior management has to havethe type of "vision".  And for that type of "vision"to pass over to employee, it needs "transparency" and "openenvironment" in organization structure

毫无疑问，“文化”是非常重要的一点。但为了促进这种文化，高级管理人员要具备一定的远见和全局观。而且一定要把这种愿景与远见传递给员工。这就需要组织结构更加透明与开放。

 

美国大公司gossip

@我有个不成熟的小建议 提问：Tesla最近事故不断，想咨询下您觉不觉得Musk的模式是在画大饼？感觉主业越来越宽，有点像国内的乐视了

 

 

This is a common problem for those international company.Because of "globalization",  companies need to compete in anumber of area, rather than just focusing on one.  Ecosystem is what largecompanies (like Internet co.) need to build for survival.

这是跨国公司的一个通病。由于“全球化”，企业需要在很多领域进行竞争，而不是仅专注于一个领域即可。生态系统的构建是大公司（如英特尔等）赖以生存的基础。

 

@方程式 提问：Albert怎么看美国高科技公司这么多印度高管？纳德拉，皮拆 Thereare quite a few articles analyzing this when Nadia became Microsoft CEO. One interesting comment was "because there're just too many opportunityin mainland China, talents are not too motivated to take over US companies fortrouble "

But I would say,  there're fundamental differences inwhat a Chinese and American looking for in live.   Nadia is more anAmerican versus Indian, and people enjoy being a powerful CEO vs a smallcompany boss.

当Nadia成为微软首席执行官后，有相当多的文章分析他成功的原因。一个有趣的观点是：“因为中国大陆有太多的机会，所以中国人没有很大的动力来接管大型的美国公司。因为越大的公司，越难管理。”但我觉得，中国人和美国人的价值观有根本性的区别。Nadia更像一个美国人，更认可美国的价值观，而不是印度的。同时，有些人就是喜欢成为世界500强的首席执行官，而不是一个小型公司的老板。

 

@crossing 提问：感觉微软最近硬件崛起，换了个CEO各项业务都起来了的态势，相比失去了乔布斯的苹果，您觉得下一个领军的硬件企业会是微软吗？

In contrast,  the reason why Microsoft starts doinghardware is not because they think its a good business, but they arereplicating on what Apple is doing.  Another issue is that Microsoft (likeApple), they don't have a vendor like FoxConn to influence the supply chain.Hardware is not a strong profitable business, and life cycle isshort.  It's unlikely that Microsoft wants to be in thismarket.  Their recent success is all because of changing to the cloud, andsubscription models on Office.  Very soon, Microsoft will alsoopen source either.

相比之下，微软开始做硬件的原因并不是因为他们认为这是一个好的业务方向，而是他们在复制苹果在做的事情。另一个问题是，微软（及苹果），他们没有像富士康这样的供应商来掌控供应链。

硬件产业不是一个利润率高的产业，同时生命周期也很短。微软不太可能想在这个市场占据一席之地。他们最近的成功是因为公司业务方向转向了云端和可订阅模式的Office。不远的未来，微软也将开源。

 

@丁丁丁01 提问：雅虎的核心业务前一段时间拍卖，Verizon只出价35亿美元。雅虎作为曾经互联网的标杆企业，没落的原因是什么

 

Remember that I said here also, "every company hasa life cycle", so as an individual.  Most companies failedbecause they don't discover that, and not adjust their strategy to "killits own business".   A book called "innovationDilemna", which I'd recommend people to read.

请记住我下面说的话，“每家公司都有生命周期”，个人亦然。大多数失败的公司是因为他们没有发现这点，并没有调整他们的战略，及时自杀自己的业务。我推荐你们阅读一本书叫做《创新困境》的书。

 

@珍珠贝 提问：amazon这种看重未来现金流，不注重盈利的模式真的可持续吗

Not really, that's why Amazon keeps doing different things(like cloud, video etc.) in order to keep their investors happy.  Amazonstock price performance is far better than Alibaba though because of these.

不一定，这就是为什么亚马逊一直在做不同的事情（如云，视频等），都是为了取悦投资者。然而也正因如此，亚马逊的股价表现远比阿里巴巴好。

 

@人好徐 提问：微软已经没落了吗？win10前景怎么样？Albert看好微软的互联网转型之路？

 

Microsoft is less competitive nowadays in IT but I'd thinkthey are still strong in enterprise solution, and a successful model in cloudcomputing.  My bet is they will also open source in next couple of years.

微软近年来竞争力略有下降，但我认为他们仍然是强大的企业解决方案提供者，并且在云计算方面遥遥领先。我敢打赌的是他们将在未来几年开源。

 

Fintech

@我爱矮大紧 提问：what do you think ofrobo-advisers and blockchain

 

They are very hot technologies in US nowadays.  Idefinitely recommend people to program in AI these day.   Block chainhas number of applications, like cryptography, distributed transactions etc.which large companies invest a lot nowadays.

这些技术都是美国最热门的。我非常建议大家从事人工智能这块。区块链已经有很多应用了，如加密，分布式交易等等。这些也都是大公司大力投资的板块。

 

@朋宇票子要伐 提问：互联网保险最近很火热，你觉得IT技术能给传统保险行业带来哪些新的变化？

Insurance industry in US is huge but pretty old inIT.  There're lots of changes happening here.  For instance,Cognitive Computing (IBM Watson), Predictive Analytics with big dataare getting hot to simplify the operation. I'd suggest you look at"big data analytics" rather than building another health care website / commerce, if you want to play a role in this industry.

美国的保险业体量是非常巨大的，但IT技术方面也相对落后。美国已经发生了很多变化。例如，认知计算（IBM Watson），用大数据进行预测分析也大大精简了一些流程。如果你要进入这行，我建议你可以“大数据分析”入手，而不是另建一个医疗护理或者医疗商务的网站。

 

@戴珍珠的抠脚老汉 提问：请问您怎么看待传统银行业与fintech之间的竞争？

 

Traditional banks are really hit by FinTech nowadays. However,  banks always has the largest capital that they can change thegame if they wanna to.  They are just bit slow.  In addition, it's about "governance (or control) from a country standpoint”. So, some FinTech, like BitCoins, can go to certain stagesonly, as no one single government wants to give away the control. Remember, technology can do anything but not necessary can by pass a"human hurdle".

如今，传统银行的确受到了FinTech的冲击。然而，银行有着最大的优势—资本。只要他们愿意，他们随时可以利用资本改变游戏规则。他们只是有点慢。此外，从国家或者政府角度来看，fintech绕不过“监管”这个问题。所以，一些FinTech，像比特币，只能走到一定的阶段，因为没有一个政府愿意放弃对金融的控制。记住，技术可以做任何事情，但一定绕不过“人为障碍”。

 

 

 

人工智能

@腐国的金融民工 提问：很多关于人工智能的电影都会提到机器人拥有情感之后的故事，那么现实生活里，科技的发展是否能够制造出拥有情感的机器人，以及，真的到了那一天，国家和社会是否会允许那样的机器人存在

Yes, there're some research here in US that machine cangenerate the "sensation impluse" like human.  I can't predictwhat countries will do after that, but it certainly requires human being tothink about what is human and what is machine ?Maybe, human being evolve to"get rid of the physical body" and only have a "spirit" atthat time.

美国是在研究机器如何会像人一样产生“感觉脉动”。我不能预测什么国家也会这样做，但这肯定会需要人类重新思考自身与机器的差别。也许有一天，人类会进化为“脱离肉体”，只有“精神”存在的状态。

 

@范范范以京 提问：机器人让体力劳动者失业，人工智能崛起让脑力劳动者也面临失业。未来预期会有的全球大规模失业浪潮会不会深深的影响我们的社会，家庭和所有的平衡？

Yes, there are some analysis saying that 50% of the jobwill be replaced by machine in 2050.  There is a fundamental question foreach of us to think -  Why human being needs to work for livingthough :)

是的，有一些分析说，50%的工作将在2050被机器取代。我们每个人都应该认真思考一个很严肃的问题：为什么人类需要为生存而工作呢？

 

all about sharing

@国家一级运动员 提问：我知道Albert你是一个技术狂人，想打听一下你最近在研究什么技术？看什么书？

 

Pretty much tied up in Machine Learning / Deep Learningwith BlueMorpho / DeepMorpho.   Have read many books related todifferent types of neural network, R, Python, Tensorflow, MS AzureAnalytics, Cognitive Computing etc.

看的比较多的是机器学习、深度学习bluemorpho/ deepmorpho。读过很多书相关的不同类型的神经网络，R，Python，tensorflow，MS Azure分析、认知计算等。

 

@馄饨不是混沌 提问：Albert，你自己有没有特别想和大家分享的一些观点和内容呢？

I've been working and living in Hangzhou for few years, andcoach a number of great talents in State Street.  One reminder is "don'tbe a follower, but a leader".  China has lots potential for sure, but we should not justkeep following each other doing the same thing. Don't compete in a "redocean" but create "blue ocean" always.

我曾经在杭州工作和生活了几年，同时在道富银行培养了很多人才。我想要分享的一点是 “不要做一个追随者，而是一个领导者”。中国有非常大的潜力，但我们不应该只是做别人在做的东西。

不要一味在“红海”厮杀，更重要的是创造“蓝海”。

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