加德纳技术成熟度曲线(Gartner Hype Cycle)
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http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_56b12d6b01010i2d.html
Gartner 公司是全球最权威的技术咨询机构,它的技术成熟曲线就是根据技术发展周期理论来分析新技术的发展周期曲线(从1995 年开始每年均有报告),以便帮助人们判断某种新技术是否采用。
这个曲线将技术成熟的过程划分为5个阶段:一是萌芽期(Technology Trigger)又称感知期,人们对新技术产品和概念开始感知,并且表现出兴趣;
二是过热期(Peak of Inflated Expectations),人们一拥而上,纷纷采用这种新技术,讨论这种新技术。典型成功的案例往往会把人们的这种热情加上把催化剂;
三是低谷期(Trough of Disillusionment),又称幻想破灭期。过度的预期,严峻的现实,往往会把人们心理的一把火浇灭;
四是复苏期(Slope of Enlightenment),又称恢复期。人们开始反思问题,并从实际出发考虑技术的价值。相比之前冷静不少;
五是成熟期(Plateau ofProductivity),又称高原期。该技术已经成为一种平常。
的确在我们平时学习一门新技术时也有类似的曲线. 而面对一种新技术时, 我们可以分析该技术处于曲线的那个阶段, 为自己做一些事情.
http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp
官网说明
Interpreting Technology Hype
When new technologies make bold promises, how do you discern the hype from what’s commercially viable? And when will such claims pay off, if at all? Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities. Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, providing a sound source of insight to manage its deployment within the context of your specific business goals.
View all Hype Cycles
Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology’s life cycle. Roll over the phases in the graphic above for more information.
How Do You Use Hype Cycles?
Clients use Hype Cycles to get educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry and individual appetite for risk.
Should you make an early move? If you’re willing to combine risk taking with an understanding that risky investments don’t always pay off, you could reap the rewards of early adoption.
Is a moderate approach appropriate? Executives who are more moderate understand the argument for an early investment but will also insist on a sound cost/benefit analysis when new ways of doing things are not yet fully proven.
Should you wait for further maturation? If there are too many unanswered questions around the commercial viability of an emerging technology, it may be better to wait until others have been able to deliver tangible value.
How Do Hype Cycles Work?
Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology’s life cycle.
Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.
Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.
Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
Read more about Hype Cycles
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