Hype Cycle (技术成熟度曲线)

来源：互联网发布：网络清洁器编辑：程序博客网时间：2024/05/18 06:27

Hype Cycle, 直译为炒作周期，又称为技术成熟度曲线。名为炒作，实是为了表示技术的受关注程度。这个模型由著名咨询公司Gartner发布，包含了Gartner对技术发展周期的预测。 Hype Cycle提供给我们Gartner公司对各种技术所处的发展阶段和趋势的预测。

Hype Cycle曲线的横轴表示技术的成熟度，纵轴表示技术受关注程度。

整个技术发展过程分为5个关键阶段： Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, Plateau of Productivity.

Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.

Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.

Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.

Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.

Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.

看看5年前的Hype Cycle是否靠谱吧？

再看看这两年Hype Cycle预测吧?

参考文献

- Hype Cycle methodology: http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp

- Gartner 2014十大战略性技术趋势: http://www.headin.cn/News/Detail/278

0 0