双色球预测的一次尝试——前期准备与初步实施



萌发预测双色球的想法来源于很久以前，小时候电视上看双色球开奖结果的时候，总会发现当解说员说“下一个中奖号码是···”的时候，中奖号码就跳出来了，所以我认为是可以认为控制的，至于可不可以预测，那就不知道了，反正试试吧。

首先我得收集双色球的中奖号码，通过历史中奖号码来预测下一组号码。

表结构设计：

中奖号码表：

字段名

名称

类型

备注

lottery_date

日期

varchar

主键

phase

期号

varchar

 

red_1

1号球

int

 

red_2

2号球

int

 

red_3

3号球

int

 

red_4

4号球

int

 

red_5

5号球

int

 

red_6

6号球

int

 

blue

蓝色球

int

 

lucky_blue

幸运蓝球

int

 

预测表：

字段名

名称

类型

备注

id

ID

int

主键

phase

期号

varchar

 

red_1

1号球

int

 

red_2

2号球

int

 

red_3

3号球

int

 

red_4

4号球

int

 

red_5

5号球

int

 

red_6

6号球

int

 

blue

蓝色球

int

 

lucky_blue

幸运蓝球

int

 

误差表：

字段名

名称

类型

备注

id

ID

int

主键

phase

期号

varchar

 

red_1

1号球

int

 

red_2

2号球

int

 

red_3

3号球

int

 

red_4

4号球

int

 

red_5

5号球

int

 

red_6

6号球

int

 

blue

蓝色球

int

 

lucky_blue

幸运蓝球

int

 

收集数据：用Java编写爬虫收集双色球中奖数据，顺便说下爬虫的使用时我在超级课程表面试的时候学会使用的，现在可以用到这个上面来实在是太幸运了。

Java代码爬虫部分

/** * this class will grab the information of each lottery * run this method you will grab the latest information of the lottery *  * */public class Spider {public static String getHtmlByUrl(String url) {String html = null;HttpClient httpClient = new DefaultHttpClient();// 创建httpClient对象HttpGet httpget = new HttpGet(url);// 以get方式请求该URLtry {HttpResponse responce = httpClient.execute(httpget);// 得到responce对象int resStatu = responce.getStatusLine().getStatusCode();// 返回码if (resStatu == HttpStatus.SC_OK) {// 200正常 其他就不对// 获得相应实体HttpEntity entity = responce.getEntity();if (entity != null) {html = EntityUtils.toString(entity);// 获得html源代码}}} catch (Exception e) {System.out.println("访问【" + url + "】出现异常!");e.printStackTrace();} finally {httpClient.getConnectionManager().shutdown();}return html;}/** * @param args */public static void main(String[] args) {DataStore dataStore = new DataStore();Lottery lottery = new Lottery();String html = getHtmlByUrl("http://baidu.lecai.com/lottery/draw/list/ssq.php");if (html != null && !"".equals(html)) {Document doc = Jsoup.parse(html);Elements trs = doc.select("table").first().select("tbody").select("tr");Elements tds = trs.get(4).select("td");String phase = tds.get(0).text();lottery.setPhase(phase);String date = tds.get(1).text();date = date.substring(0, 10);lottery.setDate(date);Elements tds2 = tds.get(2).select("em");int[] a = new int[tds2.size()];for (int i = 0; i < tds2.size(); i++) {String text = tds2.get(i).text();a[i] = Integer.parseInt(text);}lottery.setRed_1(a[0]);lottery.setRed_2(a[1]);lottery.setRed_3(a[2]);lottery.setRed_4(a[3]);lottery.setRed_5(a[4]);lottery.setRed_6(a[5]);lottery.setBlue(a[6]);if(a.length == 8){lottery.setLucky_blue(a[a.length-1]);}dataStore.storeData(lottery);}}}

数据存储部分，使用了Hibernate：

public void storeData(Lottery lottery){System.out.println(lottery.getDate());System.out.println(lottery.getPhase());System.out.println(lottery.getRed_1());System.out.println(lottery.getRed_2());System.out.println(lottery.getRed_3());System.out.println(lottery.getRed_4());System.out.println(lottery.getRed_5());System.out.println(lottery.getRed_6());System.out.println(lottery.getBlue());System.out.println(lottery.getLucky_blue());try{session=HibernateUtils.getSession();session.beginTransaction();session.save(lottery);session.getTransaction().commit();System.out.println("the date stored successfully");}catch(Exception e) {e.printStackTrace();session.getTransaction().rollback();}finally {HibernateUtils.closeSession(session);}}

缺点是如果网页结构改变的话，代码也需要重新修改。

目前我收集是从2014年10月19日到2015年4月7日的数据。

 

画出每个号码的走势图：使用Python。

import mysql.connectorfrom matplotlib.pyplot import plotfrom matplotlib.pyplot import showconn = mysql.connector.connect(user='root', password='root', database='lottery_forecast', use_unicode=True)cursor = conn.cursor()cursor.execute('select * from tb_lottery')values = cursor.fetchall()phase = []red1 = []red2 = []red3 = []red4 = []red5 = []red6 = []blue = []for i in values:    #print i[2:9]    phase.append(i[1])    red1.append(i[2])    red2.append(i[3])    red3.append(i[4])    red4.append(i[5])    red5.append(i[6])    red6.append(i[7])    blue.append(i[8])    plot(red1,lw=1.0)plot(red2,lw=1.0)plot(red3,lw=1.0)plot(red4,lw=1.0)plot(red5,lw=1.0)plot(red6,lw=1.0)plot(blue,lw=2.0)show()

结果如下图：

细线：深蓝色：1号球，绿色：2号球，红色：3号球，淡蓝色：4号球，紫色：5号球，黄色：6号球。

黑色粗线：蓝球

大致看上去还有点规律样的···

 

预测：Python代码：把每个球的历史中奖号码传入。

import numpy as npimport sysdef prediction( num):    N = len(num)    b = num[-N:]    b = b[::-1]    A = np.zeros((N, N), int)    for i in range(N):        A[i,]=num        num1=[]        num1.append(num[N-1])        for j in range(N-1):            num1.append(num[j])        num=num1    (x, residuals, rank, s) = np.linalg.lstsq(A,b)    # print x, residuals, rank, s    return np.dot(b,x)

2015年4月6日的计算结果是2015039期：1, 2, 12 , 22, 28, 29, 9，实际开奖结果：1, 13, 15, 26, 29, 30，12。中两个号码···

 

误差计算：Java代码

/** * when you did your prediction * and the real numbers come out * you can run this method to figure out the error * so you can make the next prediction according to this error *  * */public class ErrorCalculate {private static Session session;Lottery lottery = new Lottery();Forecast forecast = new Forecast();ForecastError error = new ForecastError();public void errorCalculate(){//query the latest lottery informationList lotteryList = null;try{session=HibernateUtils.getSession(); session.beginTransaction();         Query query = session.createQuery("from Lottery l where 1=1 order by l.date desc");query.setFirstResult(0);query.setMaxResults(1);lotteryList = query.list();     session.getTransaction().commit(); }catch(Exception e) {e.printStackTrace();session.getTransaction().rollback();}finally {HibernateUtils.closeSession(session);}for (int i = 0; i < lotteryList.size(); i++) {lottery = (Lottery) lotteryList.get(i);//show the lottery's phase to make sure that the two phases are the sameSystem.out.println(lottery.getPhase());}//query the latest forecasted informationList forecastList = null;try{session=HibernateUtils.getSession(); session.beginTransaction();         Query query = session.createQuery("from Forecast f where 1=1 order by f.phase desc");query.setFirstResult(0);query.setMaxResults(1);forecastList = query.list();     session.getTransaction().commit(); }catch(Exception e) {e.printStackTrace();session.getTransaction().rollback();}finally {HibernateUtils.closeSession(session);}for (int i = 0; i < forecastList.size(); i++) {forecast = (Forecast) forecastList.get(i);//show the forecast phase to make sure that the two phase are the sameSystem.out.println(forecast.getPhase());}//The error calculate must be made while the latest lottery's phase is the same to the latest forecast's phaseif(lottery.getPhase().equals(forecast.getPhase())){//calculate the error by the formula error = lottery - forecasterror.setPhase(lottery.getPhase());  //use the lottery and the forecast phase as the phase of errorerror.setRed_1(lottery.getRed_1() - forecast.getRed_1());error.setRed_2(lottery.getRed_2() - forecast.getRed_2());error.setRed_3(lottery.getRed_3() - forecast.getRed_3());error.setRed_4(lottery.getRed_4() - forecast.getRed_4());error.setRed_5(lottery.getRed_5() - forecast.getRed_5());error.setRed_6(lottery.getRed_6() - forecast.getRed_6());error.setBlue(lottery.getBlue() - forecast.getBlue());//error.setLucky_blue(lottery.getLucky_blue() - forecast.getLucky_blue());System.out.println(error.getRed_1());System.out.println(error.getRed_2());System.out.println(error.getRed_3());System.out.println(error.getRed_4());System.out.println(error.getRed_5());System.out.println(error.getRed_6());System.out.println(error.getBlue());//System.out.println(error.getLucky_blue());//save the error into table errortry{session=HibernateUtils.getSession();session.beginTransaction();session.save(error);session.getTransaction().commit();System.out.println("the error stored successfully");}catch(Exception e) {e.printStackTrace();session.getTransaction().rollback();}finally {HibernateUtils.closeSession(session);}}else{System.out.println("the phases of lottery and forecast are not same, please make the forecast or wait the next lottery comes out.");}}

2015年4月8日，再次运行Python预测算法，得到结果：1, 2, 13, 22, 28, 30, 9，怎么跟上次是差不多的啊，下次学着用其他方式试试。