关闭比特币交易所与ICO可能会引发"眼镜蛇效应"（Meddling With Bitcoin Exchanges and ICOs Likely to Trigger Cobra Effect）

The Chinese actions of banning ICOs and shutting down cryptocurrency exchanges may be with the intention of preventing ordinary Chinese citizens from incurring financial losses. They should, however, be wary of the Cobra Effect.

中国禁止ICO并关闭比特币交易所可能是想保护普通民众免受财务损失，但是，他们应该警惕 “眼睛蛇效应”。

The Cobra Effect?

什么是眼镜蛇效应？

There is an interesting anecdote about the British rule of India. Worried about the large number of venomous cobras in theIndian city of Delhi, the British government had a brilliant idea: they offered a reward for every dead cobra.

英国管辖印度时期有一则轶事，因担心德里的毒眼睛蛇的数量过多，英国政府想到了一个聪明的办法：为每条死眼睛蛇提供奖赏。

While this initially resulted in people killing cobras to claim the reward, it soon resulted in unforeseen problems for the British. People began to breed cobras to claim the reward.

尽管初期这则政策的确引导民众捕杀眼睛蛇以获得奖励，但很快就给英国政府带来了未曾预见的麻烦。人们开始繁殖眼睛蛇以换取奖励。

When the British realized this, they scrapped the reward program. The people then released the worthless snakes, resulting in an increase in the cobra population. The efforts taken by the British to solve the cobra problem had actually exacerbated the situation.

当英国人意识到这点，他们取消了奖励。百姓释放了没有价值的眼睛蛇，从而引起眼睛蛇数量的增长。英国人为解决眼镜蛇问题所做的努力最终使情况更糟。

Ceteris Paribus - The Problem

其它前提不变——问题所在

Ceteris Paribus (Latin for all other things remaining unchanged) is a key underlying assumption when people debate solutions to problems.If they fail to consider the side effects or secondary effects of the solution that they propose, they could be in for surprises.

Ceteris Paribus （拉丁语中表示所有其它前提保持不变）是人们讨论问题解决方法的关键潜在假设。如果在提出解决办法时没有考虑副作用或次生结果，结果可能会出乎意料。

The British thought offering a reward for dead cobras would result in people killing cobras and the cobra population decreasing.

英国人为死眼睛蛇提供奖励最初是想引导人们捕杀眼睛蛇，最终却造成眼睛蛇数量的增多。

Similarly, since most cryptocurrency trades take place at exchanges, the Chinese government may have thought shutting down exchanges will decrease the number of people investing in cryptocurrencies. They might just be in for a surprise.

同样的，当初大部分加密货币在交易所交易，管理者认为关闭交易所可以减少投资虚拟货币的人数，最终结果也可能在他们的意料之外。

Driving Cryptocurrencies Underground - No Solution

将加密货币赶到地下——无解

What could be the motivation behind the Chinese government's actions of banning ICOs andshutting down cryptocurrency exchanges?

中国禁止ICO并关闭虚拟货币交易所的目的是什么？

One reason could be that the Chinese government would like to make it more difficult for ordinary citizens to buy cryptocurrencies and therefore make it less popular. While there has been a temporary blip in trading volumes, resulting in Bitcoin trading it a discount, it is difficult to say how long it will last.

一个原因可能是政府想要通过使普通民众购买比特币变得更加困难从而降低其热度。尽管出现了暂时的成交量暴跌造成的价格下跌，但很难说会持续多久。

Another reason might be that the Chinese government would like to 'protect' the retail investor by making it difficult for him to buy Bitcoins.

另一个原因可能是中国政府想通过使小额投资者购买比特币变得困难来保护他们。

However, the decision to shut down cryptocurrency exchanges will likely just drive people who want to buy Bitcoins to enter into PTP trades. These are far riskier than buying Bitcoins through exchanges, with a high risk of fraud. The Chinese are, right now, creating their own version of the Cobra Effect!

然而，关闭加密货币交易所的决定可能迫使那些想要购买比特币的人进行点对点交易，那里的风险要比在交易所里购买比特币大得多，遇到骗子的风险极大。

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