拒绝微软，杨致远会四面楚歌？

 

文/王易见(欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)
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今天看到两条关于微软收购雅虎的消息，一条是微软高管站出来说收购雅虎后不会大规模裁员；另一个是Google创始人布林称微软雅虎结盟将危及互联网良性竞争，前者旨在稳定军心，后者是恐二者联合对其产生威胁。加上此前雅虎股东诉讼微软洽购雅虎侵权，我们大致可得出这个结论------微软应该是雅虎最合适的收购者，同时，也是杨致远最抵制的收购者，只是这个抵制微软的雅虎酋长会不会因拒绝微软这个合适的收购者而四面楚歌呢？

 

一，微软VS新闻集团，谁是最可能的竞购者？

 

雅虎案大致涉及四方，分别是微软、雅虎、新闻集团以及Google。目前可选择的收购者有微软和新闻集团，前者出价为446亿美元，后者为500亿。似乎新闻集团出价更合雅虎股东之意，但从业务层面上看，微软并购雅虎的价值将大于新闻集团并购雅虎的价值。

 

雅虎可开发的资源大致有两块，一是搜索，一是门户。微软旨在搜索领域，而新闻集团意在门户内容。微软并购雅虎之后在搜索广告上的影响将是立竿见影的，有可能改变Google一家独大的局面，这正是微软期待的。相反，雅虎和新闻集团旗下的互动媒体资源合并之后，只能选择外包搜索广告业务给Google，而这又恰恰违背了反垄断法。因此客观上讲，微软占有天时地利的优势。

二，股东普遍偏好微软？

 

有报道称，自从2月11日雅虎正式拒绝微软收购提议以来，已经有几起雅虎股东起诉雅虎的案子。看来股东对微软的出价还是较为满意，同时指出雅虎追求其他竞购者无非是想抬高价格，称这是对股东不负责任的做法，分析可知，这些股东不太看好其他收购者，又恐微软失去耐心，才对拒绝微软嗤之以鼻。

 

这只能反应股东对雅虎及其他竞购者缺乏信心而唯独看好微软。如果以股东价值最大化为前提，让微软抬高收购价格也无所谓，只是微软已经明确表示不会提高报价，拉锯战只能导致收购泡汤。而微软又是最可能的收购者，股东手里的雅虎股票一半换现金一半换微软股票应该是不错的交易方案，而且微软的报价溢价达到62%，符合股东的利益诉求，因此才会起诉雅虎“不识时务”。

 

三，微软可能挖雅虎墙角对抗Google？

 

微软明确提到收购雅虎后不会大规模裁员，这给雅虎员工打了一针强心剂。此前比尔盖茨称雅虎工程师价值400亿美元，言外之意是雅虎的业务和品牌、产品线都不值钱，要搞定雅虎只需搞定雅虎的人才即可。

 

这无疑会给微软收购雅虎带来广泛的群众基础，一般说来，并购完成的第一件事就是裁员，微软不但不会裁员，甚至不吝巨额奖金和补偿金来挽留雅虎和微软的员工，并保证不会出现冗余裁员的情况，这对雅虎员工来说，也是无法拒绝的一个诱惑，毕竟雅虎前景太过渺茫，与其明珠暗投，不如另谋高就。

 

看来，微软收购雅虎或许的确有了天时地利与人和的条件，一切只需杨致远最后拍板，那么在微软内外夹击的情况下，杨会不会四面楚歌呢？从当前局势来看，我很为之揪心。

 

Will JerryYang be besieged from all sides?

 

Today I enjoyed two messageson the event of Microsoft purchased Yahoo. First is that themanager of Microsoft told that after the transaction there will beno reduction in personnel. The second is the founder of Googleexpressed that the union of Microsoft and Yahoo will be bad for thecompetition of Internet. According to the lawsuit of thestockholder of Yahoo, we can make a conclusion that Microsoft isthe best choice for Yahoo but it is also the choice Jerry Yanghates. So while more and more people support the business, willJerry be besieged from all sides?

 

Microsoft VS News Corporation,who is the better choice?

 

The business of Yahoo willinclude four parts. They are Microsoft, Yahoo, News Corporation andGoogle. Now Yahoo has two choices ---Microsoft or News Corporation.The bid for Microsoft is 446 Dollars and the bid for NewsCorporation is 500 Dollars. Apparently News Corporation is thebetter choice. But for the integration of business, Microsoft willcater for the value of Yahoo.

 

The resource of Yahoo includestwo parts, one is search engine and the other is portal. Microsoftaims to get the search engine of Yahoo but News Corporation aims toportal. If Microsoft succeeds, it will be more powerful and changesthe market. If News Corporation succeeds, Yahoo has to sell thesearch product to Google. It is contrary to antimonopoly law, soMicrosoft has superior in right time and right place.

 

The stockholders of Yahooprefer Microsoft?

 

The report said since 11thFeb, Yahoo refused the proposal of Microsoft, there have beenseveral stockholders brought lawsuits against Yahoo. We can see thestockholder is satisfied with the bid of Microsoft. At the sametime, they pointed out that the aim for Yahoo seeks for othercompetitor is to drive up the bid. That can’t cater for the valueof stockholder. So they don’t think high on other competitors,they are afraid that Microsoft loss patient.

 

It can show that thestockholders have less confident on other competitors. If we thinkover the value of stockholders first, there is nothing wrong withthe bid of Microsoft. Microsoft has expressed the idea that itwon’t drive up the price. So the seesaw battle just leads thefailure. Microsoft is the best purchaser and the stockholdersaccept the bid of Microsoft.

 

Microsoft will cut the groundof Yahoo?

 

Microsoft won’t fire anystaff after the business that gives a kind of certification. Gatessaid that Yahoo engineers worth 40 billion dollars. It means thatthe business, the brand and the product line are worthless. So thesignificant strategy is to obtain the staff of Yahoo.

 

That can bring more supportfrom the masses. Generally speaking, the first event after thebusiness is to fire the staff. But Microsoft will pay more fee andcompensation to the staff of Yahoo and Microsoft. So for the staffof Yahoo, they have no reason to refuse because the perspective ofYahoo is uncertain.

 

So Microsoft has enoughconditions to do with the business. But that lies on Jerry Yang. IfMicrosoft attacks it from outside to inside, will Jerry Yang bebesieged from all sides? We will look forward to theresult.