世行调高东亚今明两年增幅预测

世行调高东亚今明两年增幅预测
 
 
英国《金融时报》约翰•阿格里昂比(John Aglionby)雅加达报道
2006年11月15日 星期三

 

 
世界银行(World Bank)昨日表示，在新兴东亚地区，连接国际贸易通道的地区与较封闭地区之间的发展不平衡问题日益严重，需要加以关注解决。

在每6个月更新的东亚经济报告中，世行还建议，东亚国家如果希望保持强劲经济增长，就应当提高经济专业化程度，并解决巨额贸易顺差问题。

世行预测，除日本以外的东亚地区，今年的经济增长率将达到7.8%，连续5年实现增幅提高，但明年的增幅将回落至7.3%。相对于3月份的报告，这两个数据均向上进行了修正。当时，世行预测东亚地区今明两年的经济增长率分别为6.6%和6.3%。

世行表示，明年的预期增幅之所以回落，主要原因是东亚以外的需求不断萎缩，尤其是美国。这是因为亚洲内部出口产品的三分之二左右为中间产品，它们作为最终出口到亚洲之外市场的产品的投入品使用。不过，石油价格预计将出现回落，可以缓解发达国家经济增速下滑对东亚国家的影响，因为东亚新兴国家都是石油净进口国。

报告称：“在某些方面，有望推动2007年经济发展前景的力量恰恰与那些促成2006年经济成果的力量相反，出口预计将放缓，国内需求对经济增长的贡献要比2006年大。”

然而，世行东亚及太平洋地区首席经济学家霍米•卡拉斯(Homi Kharas)称，如果东亚国家提高其“国内整合程度”，经济增长将更加强劲。

他表示：“（全球）贸易的好处体现在一些个别点上，通常是一些城市。（因此，）（与国际贸易）相连地区与不相连地区间，收入水平存在巨大差异。”

世行称，中国发展迅速的沿海城市与较偏远西部省份间的差距，是缺乏国内整合的最鲜明例证之一。

如果东亚中等收入国家（尤其是东南亚国家）希望实现繁荣富强，它们需要“改变策略”，因为它们正遭受贫穷国家低工资竞争者与富裕国家创新者的夹击。

卡拉斯表示：“这些国家再谈‘大力全面发展'已经不够了。除了增加对擅长领域的投入外，这些国家还需要退出一些领域。处理这种退出程序，并找出自身的比较优势，需要一种不同的策略。”

报告称，解决急剧增长的贸易顺差，是东亚地区在宏观经济层面上面临的最大挑战。预计该地区2006年的经常账户盈余合计约3020亿美元，其中中国占60%。世行担心，如果经常账户盈余持续扩大（尤其是中国），可能加剧东亚国家与美国及其它国家的紧张关系，并可能最终引发经济崩溃。

报告还表示，除印尼以外，2006年东亚其他地区的贫困人口数量继续大幅下降，这是该地区取得的一个可喜进展。世行在这份报告中着重提到了越南，称其通过迅速而广泛的经济增长，在降低贫困方面取得了瞩目成就。

世行定义的新兴东亚地区，包括东亚发展中经济体（中国、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南），以及新兴工业化经济体（香港、韩国、新加坡和台湾）。

译者/朱冠华
 

 

EAST ASIA ADVISED TO SPREAD WEALTH EVENLY
 
 
By John Aglionby in Jakarta
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
 
 
East Asia's emerging nations need to tackle the growing disparity between areas connected to international trade routes and more isolated regions, the World Bank advised yesterday.

In its six-monthly update on the region, the bank also suggested east Asian nations make their economies more specialised and address their massive trade surpluses if they want to see continued robust growth.

The bank predicts economic growth in east Asia outside Japan will reach 7.8 per cent this year, the fifth consecutive increase, but slow to 7.3 per cent next year. These are upward revisions from the March report, when the estimates were 6.6 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively.

Shrinking demand outside the region, particularly in the US, is cited as the main reason for the expected slowdown. This is because about two-thirds of intra-regional exports are made up of intermediate components for items that are sold outside east Asia. Predicted falling oil prices should mitigate slowing growth in developed economies, however, because emerging east Asia is a net oil importer.

“The forces expected to drive the outlook for 2007 are the converse of those that have driven outcomes in 2006, with exports expected to slow and with domestic demand making a bigger contribution to growth than in 2006,” the report said.

Growth would be stronger, however, if there was greater “domestic integration”, said Homi Kharas, the bank's chief economist for east Asia and the Pacific.

“The benefits from [global] trade are being seen in a few selected points, usually a few cities,” he said. “There are [therefore] significant differences in income levels between those connected [to international trade] and those not.”

The disparity between China's burgeoning coastal cities and remoter western provinces is one of the starkest examples of a lack of domestic integration, the bank said.

Middle income countries, particularly in south-east Asia, need to “do something different if they are to prosper” since they are being squeezed between low-wage competitors in poor countries and innovators in rich countries.

“It's no longer enough for governments to say ‘let's do more of everything',” Mr Kharas said. “In addition to doing more of what you're good at, you need to do less of some things. Managing that process of exit and determining where your comparative advantage lies requires a different strategy.”

Managing soaring trade surpluses is the region's biggest macro-economic challenge, the report said. The region's combined current account surplus is estimated at almost $302bn for 2006, with China holding 60 per cent of that. It is feared that continuing soaring surpluses, especially in China's case, could fuel tensions with Washington and others and might eventually trigger an economic crash.

One promising development this year has been falling poverty levels across the region, except Indonesia, the report said. Vietnam is singled out for its success in cutting poverty rates through rapid and broadly based growth.

The region the bank calls emerging east Asia includes China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and newly industrialised economies, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.